← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 82% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.52 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 6% | 6% | 15.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2444.00 | 1164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1801.89 | 1480.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.16 | 0.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.04 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |