← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 52% | 54% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.94 | fair |
| NEC win | 24% | 22% | 4.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 982.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1504.95 | 1552.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.67 | 10.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |