← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 64% | 52% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 30% | 5.05 | value: +49% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 17% | 18% | 5.78 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 982.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1538.91 | 1743.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.08 | 0.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 29.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.12 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |