← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 65% | 64% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.80 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 16% | 6.83 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 982.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1537.07 | 1515.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.40 | 31.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |