← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 49% | 51% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3811.00 | 4633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1449.61 | 1466.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.25 | 11.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |