← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 39% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 34% | 29% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.56 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1430.95 | 1548.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -58.39 | -27.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| state index | -1.42 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |