← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 42% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2802.00 | 3806.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1475.17 | 1463.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.46 | 18.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |