← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 50% | 41% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.72 | fair |
| NEC win | 24% | 31% | 4.01 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 611.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1545.22 | 1702.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.50 | 5.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.96 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |