← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 38% | 39% | 2.59 | fair |
| Heracles win | 35% | 29% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.58 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 611.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1503.68 | 1498.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.05 | -17.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |