← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 62% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.41 | value: +26% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 15% | 10% | 6.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1156.00 | 610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1474.36 | 1285.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.00 | -9.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 23.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.58 |
| state index | -0.36 | -1.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |