← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 39% | 36% | 2.52 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 34% | 38% | 2.91 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 604.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1692.73 | 1750.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.80 | -8.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.28 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 44.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 2.17 |
| state index | 0.62 | 1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |