← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 65% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.62 | value: +16% |
| NAC Breda win | 14% | 12% | 6.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 969.00 | 4621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1584.49 | 1479.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.35 | 36.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |