← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 602.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1290.98 | 1540.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.55 | 9.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 14.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.43 |
| state index | -1.40 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |