← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.28 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 18% | 17% | 5.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.01 | 1792.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.66 | -13.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 23.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.00 |
| state index | -1.04 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |