← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 55% | 60% | 1.78 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.95 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 20% | 16% | 4.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 231.00 | 3792.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1590.22 | 1462.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.44 | 1.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |