← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 34% | 30% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.57 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 597.00 | 962.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1486.52 | 1524.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.60 | 3.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |