← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 42% | 2.17 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2787.00 | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1485.68 | 1563.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.52 | -9.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |