← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 79% | 80% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.31 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 7% | 8% | 13.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1767.85 | 1604.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.50 | 20.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 47.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.77 |
| state index | 1.31 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |