← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 38% | 46% | 2.56 | value: +18% |
| Heracles win | 35% | 27% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4613.00 | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.08 | 1512.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.15 | 5.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |