← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 48% | 56% | 2.04 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.58 | fair |
| NEC win | 25% | 21% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1606.69 | 1532.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.79 | -9.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 39.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |