← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 53% | 56% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 22% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 310.00 | 2136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1530.65 | 1808.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.38 | 30.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| league points | 53.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 2.21 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |