← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 43% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| NEC win | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 675.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1506.52 | 1523.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.93 | -11.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| league points | 40.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |