← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 78% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 8% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 310.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1333.59 | 1713.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.51 | 13.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| league points | 19.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 2.00 |
| state index | -1.41 | 0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |