← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 78% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 8% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 675.00 | 3505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1650.80 | 1454.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.50 | -35.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 62.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.35 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |