← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 42% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 32% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1513.58 | 1529.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.12 | 30.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |