← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 58% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 20% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1721.30 | 1632.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.97 | 22.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 60.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.91 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |