← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 41% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +5% |
| NEC win | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 306.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1521.18 | 1652.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.86 | -16.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 41.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.91 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |