← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 47% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 27% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3501.00 | 4323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1456.44 | 1462.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.48 | -4.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |