← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 37% | 48% | 2.50 | value: +19% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 35% | 30% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 119.00 | 2129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1731.12 | 1797.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.35 | 35.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| league points | 60.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 2.16 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |