← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 55% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 303.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1525.43 | 1427.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.70 | 12.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| league points | 40.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |