← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 44% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
| AZ win | 29% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1671.92 | 1660.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.93 | -5.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 61.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.97 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |