← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 57% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 4319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1534.83 | 1440.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.13 | -25.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |