← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 82% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 7% | 8.00 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 6% | 6% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2122.00 | 3491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1794.23 | 1463.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.40 | -42.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| league points | 64.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.17 |
| state index | 2.04 | -0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |