← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 52% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 22% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1442.02 | 1520.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.76 | -17.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 41.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |