← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 76% | 79% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 8% | 8% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 295.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1337.71 | 1728.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.36 | -5.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 18.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |