← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 50% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 23% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 654.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1524.62 | 1438.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.65 | 26.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 36.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |