← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 75% | 78% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 8% | 6% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 104.00 | 4305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1736.13 | 1450.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.06 | 14.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 56.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |