← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| NEC win | 36% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 653.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1544.64 | 1607.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.69 | -3.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.86 |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |