← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 81% | 88% | 1.17 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 13% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 6% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1661.91 | 1341.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.95 | -13.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 55.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.62 |
| state index | 1.01 | -1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |