← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Thu, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 44% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 29% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | 3481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1470.52 | 1489.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.51 | -41.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.25 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |