← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 46% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4302.00 | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.48 | 1514.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.14 | -34.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |