← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 49% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 2111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1622.47 | 1777.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.24 | 31.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| league points | 54.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 2.07 |
| state index | 0.82 | 1.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |