← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 47% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1666.30 | 1736.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.22 | -43.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 57.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |