← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Tue, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 53% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +7% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 21% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 284.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1351.10 | 1534.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.24 | 43.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 18.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |