← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 56% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 19% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1412.24 | 1480.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.73 | 3.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |