← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 88% | 1.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 14% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 7% | 4% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2101.00 | 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1771.89 | 1520.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.70 | -49.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 55.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.22 |
| state index | 1.67 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |