← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 39% | 38% | 2.40 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 34% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3469.00 | 639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.92 | 1609.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.22 | -1.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 35.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.89 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |