← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 75% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +6% |
| NAC Breda win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 4291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1658.80 | 1466.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.94 | 37.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 51.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |