← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 43% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
| Vitesse win | 31% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2458.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1505.41 | 1511.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.25 | 21.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.58 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |