← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 61% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.80 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 267.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1475.55 | 1736.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.39 | -18.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 28.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.96 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |